Well, it's begun.

Last night, after the Ravens handed the Giants their collective asses, Survivor: The Outback made its premiere.

As is my habit over here, I watch pretty much all the realty shows that come across the small screen, including last summer's Big Brother. I've been lucky to miss Temptation Island this year, but that's just problems in logistics rather than opportunity (Our VCR seemed to be only recording static last week, and a new West Wing was on).

Lisa and I watched the premiere last night with enjoyment: the new show recaptures a lot of the feel of the original, except the paranoia is starting a hell of a lot sooner.

So, without further ado, here are Lisa and my picks:

(Disclaimer: These picks are based on the idea that if one tribe or the other lost all the immunity challenges in a row, this is the order in which they would be kicked out. When the tribes merge, some eight weeks from now, we will make new picks.)

Kucha Tribe

Alicia (32, Personal Trainer)

Lisa: "A little tough, and not very good at backstabbing. But I think she'll try her hand at it a lot."
Phil: "We didn't see too much of her in the first episode..."
Lisa: "Except for when she backstabbed Debb with Jeff."
Phil: "Right, right. And she was all tough/honest. That never lasts."

Lisa: 5th to get the boot
Phil: 4th

Elisabeth (23, Footwear Designer)

Phil: "Totally useless. Unless she shows them how to make decent boots out of alligator skin, she's out of there."
Lisa: "Ah, but she slips beneath the radar. She's 'nice', and 'good', and doesn't piss people off. Plus she's eye candy."
Phil: "Never discount the eye candy factor. I think she should get the boot just for that stupid headdress she made. And took with her as her luxury item. What was that?"
Lisa: "All right, not the brightest move."

Lisa: 7th
Phil: 3rd

Jeff (34, Internet Projects Manager)

Lisa: "He's a dink."
Phil: "Agreed. He wants to be Richard so bad."
Lisa: "He's a dink."
Phil: "..."

Lisa: 2nd
Phil: 2nd

Kimmi (28, Bartender)

Phil: "Again with the eye candy. What, do the producers think we're just going keep watching to see these chippies bounce around for 16 weeks?"
Lisa: "Of course they do. And you will."
Phil: "Well, yeah. And despite spelling her name 'Kimmi', she seems likeable enough and vocal enough that I think she'll do well."
Lisa: "I dunno. That whole 'honest opinion' thing is going to go against her. She isn't a dumb as her name sounds and I think the boys are going to get mad about that."

Lisa: 4th
Phil: 6th

Michael (38, President of a software publishing and distribution company)

Lisa: "He's a born leader. People don't generally vote off a leader."
Phil: "Exactly. Richard pissed everyone off, but he was the ringleader and rallied people around him. As long as Michael doesn't take his clothes off, I think he'll do well."
Lisa: "His only downfall is that he is starting alliances already and that could backfire."
Phil: "He is a hunter though. Might come in handy."

Lisa: 8th
Phil: 8th

Nick (23, Student/Army officer)

Phil: "Nick. What can we say about Nick? Did we even see him at all?"
Lisa: "That'll work in his favor."
Phil: "Sure, when it comes time to vote, no one will remember his name."
Lisa: "And he's a hottie."

Lisa: 6th
Phil: 5th

Rodger (53, Teacher)

Lisa: "Originally, I thought he was a bible thumper, but he really came through by pulling pages from his bible to try to start the fire."
Phil: "Now if he comes through when they run out of toilet paper..."
Lisa: "..."
Phil: "Hee hee."
Lisa: "Um. Anyway. Michael was concerned that Rodger wouldn't be able to keep up in the physical challenges."
Phil: "That's what they said about Rudy."

Lisa: 3rd
Phil: 7th

Debb (45, Corrections officer)

Phil: "Wow. She was pretty annoying, wasn't she?"
Lisa: "Mid-show, I realized she was the one that was going to be kicked off."
Phil: "I thought it was Jeff for a while, with the barfing and everything. Ah, well. Maybe next time."
Lisa: "She sealed her fate when she wouldn't participate in the late-night sex talk."

(Debb was kicked off first. We'd make that our prediction, but that would be silly. And we're never silly around here.)

Ogakor Tribe

Amber (22, Administrative Assistant)

Lisa: "She is a lifeguard. So that could work for her in swimming challenges."
Phil: "Yeah, but beyond that she's functionally useless. C'mon, she still lives with her parents."
Lisa: "She IS a sorority chick, so who knows what she'll do for the guys."
Phil: "She'll flounce for a couple episodes, then she's gone."

Lisa: 3rd
Phil: 3rd

Colby (26, Custom Auto Designer)

Phil: "Everyone thought he was pretty dumb, bringing along a Texas flag as his luxury item."
Lisa: "But now that it's the shelter, it would be very inconvenient if they kicked him off and he took it home with him."
Phil: "Exactly. Shows some smarts on his part, that's for sure."
Lisa: "Plus he doesn't seem threatening, or quick to anger."

Lisa: 6th
Phil: 6th

Jerri (30, Actor)

Lisa: "She's a vegetarian. The next challenge is to eat nasty island stuff. She'll lose it for them and she's out of there."
Phil: "She's obviously only there to give a boost to her sagging acting career."
Lisa: "Which is too bad as she can't even act like she likes Keith."
Phil: "Yeah. Making an enemy out of your cook is such a good idea."

Lisa: 1st
Phil: 2nd

Keith (40, Chef and Restaurateur)

Phil: "He'll get a lot of mileage out of the whole 'I'm a chef, I can make bugs taste good' shtick."
Lisa: "Plus he seems to want to smooth things over whenever there is a disagreement."
Phil: "Yeah, letting Jerri beat on her bongos didn't exactly help start a fire, but it made her happy."
Lisa: "I think he'll be helpful in the other challenges. Just a feeling."

Lisa: 7th
Phil: 7th

Kel (32, U.S. Army Intelligence Officer)

Lisa: "C'mon, the job says it all."
Phil: "Mr. Sneaky, coming in under the radar to manipulate their minds. Vegas has him as the favorite to win the whole deal. So who are we to argue."

Lisa: 8th
Phil: 8th

Maralyn (51, Police Inspector, retired)

Phil: "Tough old broad, isn't she?"
Lisa: "Yeah, she'll do well in the challenges."
Phil: "Looks rotten in a bathing suit."
Lisa: "That'll be her downfall."

Lisa: 4th
Phil: 4th

Mitchell (23, Singer/Songwriter)

Lisa: "The tallest man in the world?"
Phil: "He'll come in handy reaching things..."
Lisa: "You'd think he'd stand out more, considering he's seven feet tall. He'll be the first of the guys to go."

Lisa: 5th
Phil: 5th

Tina (40, Nurse)

Phil: "She is so 'Sonya'. Den mother, pleasant, sweet."
Lisa: "Yup. All together forgettable."
Phil: "Like what's-her-name on Big Brother."
Lisa: "She won't be able to help with the tasks or challenges, and will get the boot awful soon."

Lisa: 2nd
Phil: 1st

Okay, for easy reference (be sure to print it off and paste it beside your TV), here they are in order of how they'll get the boot:

You watch far too much TV.

How were you feeling?

Speaking of food...

Take me home, big fella